21 June 2012

Skylab Weather

The amount of orbital debris currently circling the planet is simply staggering. Of course most of it is in the paint-chips and urine-icicles. But, according to NASA, there are more than a half-million pieces that are between 1 and 10cm in diameter. Now, a lot of it will burn up if it reenters the Earth’s atmosphere, but there’s always that chance.

Is anyone old enough to remember Skylab?

In July 1979, after six years in orbit, the space station known as Skylab was de-orbited by ground control and aimed at a spot in the middle of the ocean. They missed. Skylab did not disintegrate as planned and, combined with other errors, portions of the space station struck Western Australia.

The TV show “Max Headroom” would later parody the fall of Skylab, with the falling of space debris a time of celebration and partying, with everyone wearing fanciful hats or carrying decorative umbrellas.

NASA had estimated the chances of Skylab debris hitting a human being at 1:152, with a 1:7 chance that debris would strike a populated city. The Orbital Debris Program Office official position is that modern-day orbital debris poses no significant risk to life or property; most of the debris burns up, and anything that survives is more likely to hit a body of water than land.

I sense a conspiracy theory possibility!

The same NASA office that tells us that there is no risk from orbital debris slamming into the Earth also readily admits that, on average, one piece of debris fell back to Earth EVERY DAY FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS!

I think it would be awesome to have an app for that.

Pros:

  • Anything that supports a conspiracy theory sells. If you combine it with outer-space it sells even better. If it could potentially pose a direct threat, it sells better still!
  • It is the right combination of technical precision with abominable accuracy that directly appeals to geeks. Done properly, a good portion of geekdom will download the app simply for the nerd appeal

Cons:

  • Niche hobby app - the app solves no real problems and isn’t likely to be entertaining after the first 5 minutes
  • If you don’t pull the debris catalogs and do real math, you’ll face a lot of negative comments. If you do, you’ll truly have wasted your time
  • For best results, the app is going to be graphics-loaded. A good app will be a tricky design